# Future value and present value
PV = 1000
r = 0.08
n = 2
FV = PV * (1 + r)**n
PV_back = FV / (1 + r)**n
FV, PV_back(1166.4, 1000.0)
This appendix collects the main formulas used in NREC4230 Agricultural Finance. It is designed as a revision sheet for students and as a reference page for the local Quarto coursebook.
Use the formulas together with the lecture notes. Always define units clearly: OMR, tons, kg, acres, hectares, years, months, or contract size.
| Symbol | Meaning |
|---|---|
| \(PV\) | Present value |
| \(FV\) | Future value |
| \(r\) | Interest rate or discount rate per period |
| \(n\) | Number of periods |
| \(PMT\) | Equal payment per period |
| \(I\) | Interest amount |
| \(m\) | Number of compounding periods per year |
| \(C_t\) | Cash flow in period \(t\) |
| \(B_t\) | Benefit in period \(t\) |
| \(K_t\) | Cost in period \(t\) |
| \(Q\) | Quantity produced or traded |
| \(P\) | Price |
| \(S_t\) | Spot price at time \(t\) |
| \(F_t\) | Futures price at time \(t\) |
| \(h\) | Hedge ratio |
| \(N\) | Number of futures contracts |
| \(q_c\) | Contract size |
Simple interest is calculated only on the original principal.
\[ I = PV \times r \times n \]
\[ FV = PV + I \]
Therefore:
\[ FV = PV(1 + rn) \]
If a farmer borrows OMR 1,000 at 6% simple annual interest for 2 years:
\[ I = 1000 \times 0.06 \times 2 = 120 \]
\[ FV = 1000 + 120 = 1120 \]
Compound interest adds interest to the principal, and future interest is earned on both.
\[ FV = PV(1+r)^n \]
This was one of the main formulas in the attached financial formula sheet.
\[ FVIF(r,n) = (1+r)^n \]
\[ FV = PV \times FVIF(r,n) \]
If \(FV\) is known and \(PV\) is unknown:
\[ PV = \frac{FV}{(1+r)^n} \]
Present value discounts a future amount back to today.
\[ PV = \frac{FV}{(1+r)^n} \]
This was also included in the attached formula sheet.
\[ PVIF(r,n) = \frac{1}{(1+r)^n} \]
\[ PV = FV \times PVIF(r,n) \]
A higher discount rate reduces present value.
Do not multiply by \((1+r)^n\) when the question asks for present value. Present value requires discounting, not compounding.
An ordinary annuity has equal payments at the end of each period.
\[ FVA = PMT \times \frac{(1+r)^n - 1}{r} \]
This formula was included in the attached formula sheet.
\[ FVIFA(r,n) = \frac{(1+r)^n - 1}{r} \]
\[ FVA = PMT \times FVIFA(r,n) \]
The present value of an ordinary annuity is:
\[ PVA = PMT \times \frac{1 - (1+r)^{-n}}{r} \]
This formula was included in the attached formula sheet.
\[ PVIFA(r,n) = \frac{1 - (1+r)^{-n}}{r} \]
\[ PVA = PMT \times PVIFA(r,n) \]
Sometimes payments start after a delay or occur only between selected periods.
If payments of \(PMT\) are made from period \(t_1\) to period \(t_2\), where \(t_1 < t_2\), then:
\[ PV = PMT \times \frac{1 - (1+r)^{-(t_2-t_1+1)}}{r} \times (1+r)^{-(t_1-1)} \]
This is the cleaned LaTeX version of the deferred or partial annuity formula in the attached formula sheet.
The formula has two steps:
An annuity due has equal payments at the beginning of each period.
\[ FVA_{due} = PMT \times \frac{(1+r)^n - 1}{r} \times (1+r) \]
\[ PVA_{due} = PMT \times \frac{1 - (1+r)^{-n}}{r} \times (1+r) \]
An annuity due is one period earlier than an ordinary annuity. That is why we multiply the ordinary annuity value by \((1+r)\).
For a loan with equal periodic payments:
\[ PMT = \frac{PV \times r}{1 - (1+r)^{-n}} \]
Equivalently:
\[ PMT = \frac{PV}{PVIFA(r,n)} \]
\[ \text{Interest Payment}_t = \text{Outstanding Balance}_{t-1} \times r \]
\[ \text{Principal Payment}_t = PMT - \text{Interest Payment}_t \]
\[ \text{Outstanding Balance}_t = \text{Outstanding Balance}_{t-1} - \text{Principal Payment}_t \]
\[ \text{Total Interest} = (PMT \times n) - PV \]
\[ APR = r \times m \]
where \(r\) is the periodic interest rate and \(m\) is the number of periods per year. This formula was included in the attached formula sheet.
\[ EAR = \left(1 + \frac{APR}{m}\right)^m - 1 \]
If the periodic rate is already given as \(r\):
\[ EAR = (1+r)^m - 1 \]
APR is a quoted annual rate. EAR is the true annual rate after compounding.
When interest is compounded \(m\) times per year:
\[ FV = PV\left(1 + \frac{r}{m}\right)^{mn} \]
where \(r\) is the nominal annual rate and \(n\) is the number of years.
For advanced reference:
\[ FV = PV \times e^{rn} \]
\[ PV = FV \times e^{-rn} \]
For a sequence of future cash flows:
\[ PV = \sum_{t=1}^{n} \frac{C_t}{(1+r)^t} \]
If there is an initial investment \(I_0\):
\[ NPV = -I_0 + \sum_{t=1}^{n} \frac{C_t}{(1+r)^t} \]
Decision rule:
\[ NPV > 0 \Rightarrow \text{Accept the project} \]
\[ NPV < 0 \Rightarrow \text{Reject the project} \]
In agricultural project analysis, net present value is often called net present worth.
\[ NPW = \sum_{t=0}^{n} \frac{B_t - K_t}{(1+r)^t} \]
where \(B_t\) is benefit and \(K_t\) is cost in period \(t\).
Decision rule:
\[ NPW > 0 \Rightarrow \text{Project is financially feasible} \]
The benefit-cost ratio compares discounted benefits with discounted costs.
\[ BCR = \frac{\text{Present Value of Benefits}}{\text{Present Value of Costs}} \]
More explicitly:
\[ BCR = \frac{\sum_{t=0}^{n} \frac{B_t}{(1+r)^t}}{\sum_{t=0}^{n} \frac{K_t}{(1+r)^t}} \]
This formula was included in the attached formula sheet.
Decision rule:
\[ BCR > 1 \Rightarrow \text{Benefits exceed costs} \]
The internal rate of return is the discount rate that makes NPV equal to zero.
\[ 0 = -I_0 + \sum_{t=1}^{n} \frac{C_t}{(1+IRR)^t} \]
Decision rule:
\[ IRR > \text{Cost of Capital} \Rightarrow \text{Accept the project} \]
IRR should not be used alone when projects differ greatly in size or timing. NPV is usually the safer decision rule.
For equal annual cash flows:
\[ \text{Payback Period} = \frac{\text{Initial Investment}}{\text{Annual Net Cash Flow}} \]
For unequal cash flows, add annual cash flows until the initial investment is recovered.
Use discounted cash flows:
\[ \text{Discounted Cash Flow}_t = \frac{C_t}{(1+r)^t} \]
\[ ARR = \frac{\text{Average Annual Accounting Profit}}{\text{Initial Investment}} \times 100 \]
Sometimes average investment is used instead:
\[ ARR = \frac{\text{Average Annual Accounting Profit}}{\text{Average Investment}} \times 100 \]
If a project requires initial investment \(I_0\) and produces equal annual cash flow for \(n\) years, the break-even annual cash flow is:
\[ C^* = \frac{I_0}{PVIFA(r,n)} \]
If expected annual cash flow is greater than \(C^*\), the project has positive NPV.
\[ \text{Assets} = \text{Liabilities} + \text{Owner's Equity} \]
Rearranged:
\[ \text{Owner's Equity} = \text{Assets} - \text{Liabilities} \]
\[ \text{Gross Profit} = \text{Revenue} - \text{Cost of Goods Sold} \]
\[ \text{Operating Profit} = \text{Gross Profit} - \text{Operating Expenses} \]
\[ \text{Net Profit} = \text{Total Revenue} - \text{Total Expenses} \]
For a farm enterprise:
\[ \text{Net Farm Income} = \text{Farm Revenue} - \text{Farm Operating Costs} - \text{Depreciation} - \text{Interest} \]
\[ \text{Net Cash Flow} = \text{Cash Inflows} - \text{Cash Outflows} \]
\[ \text{Ending Cash Balance} = \text{Beginning Cash Balance} + \text{Net Cash Flow} \]
\[ \text{Current Ratio} = \frac{\text{Current Assets}}{\text{Current Liabilities}} \]
\[ \text{Quick Ratio} = \frac{\text{Current Assets} - \text{Inventory}}{\text{Current Liabilities}} \]
\[ \text{Working Capital} = \text{Current Assets} - \text{Current Liabilities} \]
\[ \text{Debt-to-Equity Ratio} = \frac{\text{Total Liabilities}}{\text{Owner's Equity}} \]
\[ \text{Debt Ratio} = \frac{\text{Total Liabilities}}{\text{Total Assets}} \]
\[ \text{Equity Ratio} = \frac{\text{Owner's Equity}}{\text{Total Assets}} \]
\[ \text{Gross Profit Margin} = \frac{\text{Gross Profit}}{\text{Revenue}} \times 100 \]
\[ \text{Net Profit Margin} = \frac{\text{Net Profit}}{\text{Revenue}} \times 100 \]
\[ ROA = \frac{\text{Net Profit}}{\text{Total Assets}} \times 100 \]
\[ ROE = \frac{\text{Net Profit}}{\text{Owner's Equity}} \times 100 \]
\[ \text{Inventory Turnover} = \frac{\text{Cost of Goods Sold}}{\text{Average Inventory}} \]
\[ \text{Asset Turnover} = \frac{\text{Revenue}}{\text{Total Assets}} \]
\[ \text{Receivables Turnover} = \frac{\text{Credit Sales}}{\text{Average Accounts Receivable}} \]
\[ DSCR = \frac{\text{Net Operating Income}}{\text{Total Debt Service}} \]
Decision interpretation:
\[ DSCR > 1 \Rightarrow \text{Income is sufficient to cover debt service} \]
\[ DSCR < 1 \Rightarrow \text{Debt repayment is financially stressed} \]
If the lender requires a minimum DSCR:
\[ \text{Maximum Debt Service} = \frac{\text{Net Operating Income}}{\text{Required DSCR}} \]
\[ E(X) = \sum_{i=1}^{n} p_i x_i \]
where \(p_i\) is the probability of outcome \(i\) and \(x_i\) is the value of outcome \(i\).
\[ \text{Expected Loss} = \text{Probability of Event} \times \text{Loss if Event Occurs} \]
\[ Var(X) = \sum_{i=1}^{n} p_i \left(x_i - E(X)\right)^2 \]
\[ SD(X) = \sqrt{Var(X)} \]
For two farm activities, such as maize and soybean:
\[ E(R_p) = w_1E(R_1) + w_2E(R_2) \]
\[ \sigma_p^2 = w_1^2\sigma_1^2 + w_2^2\sigma_2^2 + 2w_1w_2\rho_{12}\sigma_1\sigma_2 \]
\[ \sigma_p = \sqrt{\sigma_p^2} \]
where:
| Symbol | Meaning |
|---|---|
| \(w_1, w_2\) | Portfolio weights |
| \(\sigma_1, \sigma_2\) | Standard deviations of returns |
| \(\rho_{12}\) | Correlation between returns |
Diversification reduces risk more when correlation is low, zero, or negative.
\[ \text{Revenue} = \text{Yield} \times \text{Area} \times \text{Price} \]
\[ \text{Profit} = \text{Revenue} - \text{Cost} \]
\[ \Delta \text{Revenue} = \text{Revenue}_{new} - \text{Revenue}_{old} \]
\[ \%\Delta X = \frac{X_{new} - X_{old}}{X_{old}} \times 100 \]
A general indemnity formula is:
\[ \text{Indemnity} = \max(0, \text{Covered Loss} - \text{Deductible}) \]
If a payout cap applies:
\[ \text{Final Payout} = \min(\text{Indemnity}, \text{Payout Cap}) \]
Net compensation after premium:
\[ \text{Net Compensation} = \text{Final Payout} - \text{Premium} \]
Expected output:
\[ Q_e = \text{Expected Yield} \times \text{Area} \]
Actual output:
\[ Q_a = \text{Actual Yield} \times \text{Area} \]
Yield loss:
\[ \text{Yield Loss} = Q_e - Q_a \]
Revenue loss from yield decline:
\[ \text{Revenue Loss} = (Q_e - Q_a) \times P \]
Covered loss:
\[ \text{Covered Loss} = \text{Coverage Rate} \times \text{Revenue Loss} \]
Payout:
\[ \text{Payout} = \max(0, \text{Covered Loss} - \text{Deductible}) \]
Expected revenue:
\[ R_e = Q_e \times P_e \]
Actual revenue:
\[ R_a = Q_a \times P_a \]
Guaranteed revenue:
\[ R_g = \text{Guarantee Rate} \times R_e \]
Gross indemnity:
\[ \text{Gross Indemnity} = \max(0, R_g - R_a) \]
Final payout:
\[ \text{Final Payout} = \min\left[\max(0, \text{Gross Indemnity} - \text{Deductible}), \text{Payout Cap}\right] \]
\[ \text{Rainfall Deficit \%} = \frac{\text{Normal Rainfall} - \text{Actual Rainfall}}{\text{Normal Rainfall}} \times 100 \]
If payout is proportional to shortfall:
\[ \text{Payout} = \text{Maximum Payout} \times \frac{\text{Rainfall Deficit \%}}{100} \]
If area is included:
\[ \text{Total Payout} = \text{Payout per ha} \times \text{Area Insured} \times \frac{\text{Rainfall Deficit \%}}{100} \]
A rainfall index contract often uses bands:
\[ \text{Payout} = \begin{cases} 0, & d < d_1 \\ P_1, & d_1 \le d < d_2 \\ P_2, & d_2 \le d < d_3 \\ P_{max}, & d \ge d_3 \end{cases} \]
where \(d\) is the rainfall deficit percentage.
Basis risk is the mismatch between actual farm loss and index-based payout.
A simple expression is:
\[ \text{Basis Risk Gap} = \text{Actual Farm Loss} - \text{Index Payout} \]
If the gap is positive, the farmer is under-compensated.
If the gap is negative, the farmer receives more than actual measured loss.
If a farmer signs a contract for quantity \(Q\) at contract price \(P_c\):
\[ \text{Contract Revenue} = Q \times P_c \]
If the harvest spot price is \(P_s\):
\[ \text{Revenue Without Contract} = Q \times P_s \]
Protection from price fall:
\[ \text{Avoided Loss} = Q(P_c - P_s) \]
when \(P_c > P_s\).
\[ \text{Spot Revenue} = Q \times S_T \]
where \(S_T\) is the spot price at harvest.
A producer usually uses a short hedge.
\[ \text{Futures Gain/Loss} = Q_h(F_0 - F_T) \]
where:
| Symbol | Meaning |
|---|---|
| \(Q_h\) | Hedged quantity |
| \(F_0\) | Futures price when hedge is opened |
| \(F_T\) | Futures price when hedge is closed |
\[ \text{Total Hedged Revenue} = Q S_T + Q_h(F_0 - F_T) \]
If the full quantity is hedged, then \(Q_h = Q\).
If the farmer hedges proportion \(h\) of expected output:
\[ Q_h = hQ \]
Total revenue becomes:
\[ \text{Total Revenue} = Q S_T + hQ(F_0 - F_T) \]
where \(0 \le h \le 1\).
Basis is the difference between spot and futures prices:
\[ \text{Basis}_t = S_t - F_t \]
Initial basis:
\[ b_0 = S_0 - F_0 \]
Harvest basis:
\[ b_T = S_T - F_T \]
Change in basis:
\[ \Delta b = b_T - b_0 \]
For a short hedge:
\[ \text{Effective Price} = S_T + (F_0 - F_T) \]
This can be rewritten as:
\[ \text{Effective Price} = F_0 + b_T \]
A short hedge locks in the initial futures price plus the final basis. Basis risk remains because \(b_T\) is not known when the hedge is opened.
For a full hedge:
\[ N = \frac{Q}{q_c} \]
For a partial hedge:
\[ N = \frac{hQ}{q_c} \]
where \(q_c\) is the contract size.
If \(N\) is not an integer, round carefully based on practical hedge design.
The minimum-variance hedge ratio is:
\[ h^* = \rho_{SF}\frac{\sigma_S}{\sigma_F} \]
where:
| Symbol | Meaning |
|---|---|
| \(\rho_{SF}\) | Correlation between spot and futures price changes |
| \(\sigma_S\) | Standard deviation of spot price changes |
| \(\sigma_F\) | Standard deviation of futures price changes |
Optimal number of contracts:
\[ N^* = \frac{h^*Q}{q_c} \]
For a calendar spread with one long contract and one short contract:
\[ \Pi_{long} = F_{sell} - F_{buy} \]
\[ \Pi_{short} = F_{sell\,initial} - F_{buy\,closing} \]
\[ \Pi_{spread} = \Pi_{long} + \Pi_{short} \]
For multiple contracts:
\[ \Pi_{total} = \Pi_{spread} \times \text{Contract Size} \times \text{Number of Contracts} \]
\[ \text{Commodity Value} = Q \times P \]
\[ \text{Loan Amount} = \text{Loan-to-Value Ratio} \times \text{Commodity Value} \]
\[ \text{Interest} = \text{Loan Amount} \times r \times t \]
\[ \text{Repayment} = \text{Loan Amount} + \text{Interest} \]
\[ \text{Net Proceeds} = QP_T - \text{Repayment} - \text{Storage Cost} \]
\[ \text{Government Expenditure} = Q_{released} \times P_{subsidized} \]
\[ \text{Market Value} = Q_{released} \times P_{market} \]
\[ \text{Subsidy Cost} = Q_{released}(P_{market} - P_{subsidized}) \]
\[ \text{Cash Transfer Budget} = \text{Total Fund} \times \text{Cash Transfer Share} \]
\[ \text{Cash Transfer per Farmer} = \frac{\text{Cash Transfer Budget}}{\text{Number of Farmers}} \]
\[ \text{Input Subsidy Budget} = \text{Total Fund} \times \text{Input Subsidy Share} \]
\[ \text{Input Subsidy per Farmer} = \frac{\text{Input Subsidy Budget}}{\text{Number of Farmers}} \]
A simple classroom risk score can be calculated as:
\[ \text{Risk Score} = \text{Frequency Score} \times \text{Severity Score} \]
If vulnerability is included:
\[ \text{Adjusted Risk Score} = \text{Frequency} \times \text{Severity} \times \text{Vulnerability} \]
For three currencies A, B, and C, an implied cross rate can be compared with the quoted cross rate.
If rates are quoted as:
\[ A/B \quad \text{and} \quad B/C \]
then the implied rate is:
\[ A/C = (A/B) \times (B/C) \]
Arbitrage signal:
\[ \text{Quoted } A/C \ne \text{Implied } A/C \]
Profit is possible before transaction costs if the conversion cycle ends with more than the starting amount.
Always check the direction of exchange rates. Multiplying when you should divide gives the wrong arbitrage result.
\[ \Delta P = P_1 - P_0 \]
\[ \%\Delta P = \frac{P_1 - P_0}{P_0} \times 100 \]
\[ R = \frac{P_1 - P_0 + D}{P_0} \]
where \(D\) is income received during the holding period, such as dividend, coupon, or rental payment.
\[ \text{Real Value} = \frac{\text{Nominal Value}}{1+\pi} \]
where \(\pi\) is the inflation rate.
\[ r_{real} \approx r_{nominal} - \pi \]
\[ 1 + r_{real} = \frac{1+r_{nominal}}{1+\pi} \]
Therefore:
\[ r_{real} = \frac{1+r_{nominal}}{1+\pi} - 1 \]
| Method | Decision rule |
|---|---|
| NPV or NPW | Accept if positive |
| BCR | Accept if greater than 1 |
| IRR | Accept if greater than cost of capital |
| Payback | Prefer shorter payback, but do not ignore profitability |
| Current ratio | Higher means stronger short-term liquidity, but very high may indicate idle assets |
| Debt ratio | Higher means greater solvency risk |
| DSCR | Must usually be above 1, often above lender threshold |
| Insurance | Compare net compensation, not only gross payout |
| Futures hedge | Compare hedged revenue with unhedged revenue and check basis risk |
| Warehouse receipt | Delayed-sale gain must exceed interest and storage costs |
These examples can be used in the Python appendix or copied into lecture notes.
(1166.4, 1000.0)
(2774.0973194104868, 3870.4865970524334)
24000
If payments are monthly, the interest rate must also be monthly.
Compare net compensation after premium, not only payout.
Total hedged revenue is spot revenue plus futures gain or loss.
A hedge may reduce price risk but still leave basis risk.
A project can have a high BCR but a small total value. Always interpret project scale.
This formula sheet is based on NREC4230 lecture materials, the attached Basic_Financial_Formulas.docx file, and the agricultural finance and risk-management examples used in the course.
45. Social protection and safety nets
Employment guarantee income
\[ \text{Employment Income} = \text{Daily Wage} \times \text{Number of Work Days} \]
Total household support
\[ \text{Total Support} = \text{Cash Transfer} + \text{Food Voucher Value} + \text{Employment Income} \]